So, not only did I end up winning for the second straight week, I bet heavy on the Dolphins. Ricky Williams promptly rewarded me with 31 fantasy points and a win. And I have Aaron Rodgers and Donald Driver as they go up against the Stafford and Megatron-less Lions on Thanksgiving. Life is pretty sweet.

Last week: 2-1
Overall: 17-8-1

Green Bay Packers -11 at Detroit Lions
Losing Calvin Johnson is a bigger blow to the Lions than Kampman and Al Harris are to the Packers–this week, anyway. Daunte Culpepper is probably no worse than Stafford, but the Lions defense looked pretty junior-varsity against the Browns. The Lions have a middling run defense, but the worst pass defense in the league by a huge margin.

Indianapolis Colts -3.5 at Houston Texans
I know the Texans have historically played the Colts close or whatever, but Houston is essentially a 5/8ths-scale replica of the Colts. I’ll be shocked if the final score is within 7.

Miami Dolphins -3.5 at Buffalo Bills
Another spread that’s way too close for its own good. Buffalo currently ranks 29th against the run by DVOA, and as we’ve already established, Ricky Williams=good.

More potentially-related posts:

1. 2009 NFL picks, week 15.
2. 2009 Week 8 NFL picks.
3. 2009 Week 14 NFL picks.