2009 Week 7 NFL picks.
Last year, I was working in an office with a full-fledged weekly pool, and jointly blogged my picks for each week. This year, I’m no longer in said office, and my new gig is pretty devoid of NFL fans. That said, because I joined my first-ever fantasy league, I spend enough time thinking about this crap each week that I’m resurrecting the tradition. We’ll see how long it lasts.
In addition, last year’s pool was just a straightforward pick-’em, with no spread involved. To make it more interesting, I’ll be going against the spread this year. I expect to fare poorly. As always, picks in bold after the jump.
San Diego Chargers -5.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
For some reason, Larry Johnson and his -103 DYAR are still getting nearly all the carries in the KC offense.
Indianapolis Colts -14 at St. Louis Rams
I’d take this bet at -20. The Rams have come within 14 points of winning twice: their 9-7 loss to the imploding Redskins and last week’s 23-20 loss in OT to the Jaguars. Through six weeks, they’ve allowed 169 points, scored 54, and have been shut out by Seattle and San Francisco (combined record: 5-6).
Green Bay Packers -7 at Cleveland Browns
Bodog took this line off the board, but come on–even Green Bay’s “baby Swiss” offensive line can’t give this game away.
Minnesota Vikings +4 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I know I’ve picked three four straight favorites in a row, but I really don’t think Minny’s as good as their record. Pittsburgh’s not looking elite, but I’ll take Hines Ward over Bernard Berrian any day (incidentally, after the inevitable “Santonio Holmes will take over as the #1 receiver this year” talk, he’s leading the league in receiving yards).
New England Patriots -15 “at” Tampa Bay Buccaneers (really in London)
Julian Edelman, a.k.a. “Jewish Wes Welker,” broke his arm, leaving the Pats with only Welker, Randy Moss, and some practice squadders. Oh no. Whatever will Tom Brady do.
San Francisco 49ers +3 at Houston Texans
Gore comes back from his injury against a Texans team that can’t really run the ball or play much defense. That said, I wouldn’t touch this game.
New York Jets -7 at Oakland Raiders
Did Oakland finally wake up last week, or was it a completely random anomaly? The entire team managed to play four quarters of competent football. On the other sideline, I get the feeling NYJ offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer hasn’t quite mastered this “halftime adjustments” thing–three of rookie QB Mark Sanchez’s five interceptions came in the second half, as he tried to force passes to Braylon Edwards despite high winds.
Buffalo Bills ?? at Carolina Panthers
No line for this game on Bodog, but whatever it is, I’d probably take the Panthers. You know, if I were crazy enough to bet on this game.
Chicago Bears +1.5 at Cincinnati Bengals
Neither team has looked overly impressive, but the Bengals’ running game has been sounder than Chicago’s. I don’t feel strongly about either team, so let’s go with the home team on Hard Knocks.
New Orleans Saints -7 at Miami Dolphins
Commenter ChrisNO had a good analysis of the Saints’ o-line splits at FO, and Miami can’t generate the kind of middle push that can get Drew Brees off his spot. The best-case scenario for Miami is something like their game against the Colts–run successfully and try to keep the score close. Unfortunately, they lost to the Colts, and the New Orleans offense is a juggernaut. Incidentally, that 20-1 bet I laid on the Saints to win the Super Bowl looks like it might pay off.
Atlanta Falcons +4 at Dallas Cowboys
This line seems pretty high to me. Perfect for a teaser with the Colts or Pats. I think the deciding factor here is Romo, which is not encouraging for Cowboys fans.
Arizona Cardinals +7 at New York Giants
Hard to tell what’s happening with the Cardinals. Too much variability in this game for me to bet on it, but if I had to, I’d take the Giants.
Philadelphia Eagles -7 at Washington Redskins
The Jim Zorn experiment is about to end. Unfortunately, I took Clinton Portis in the first round of my fantasy league.