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Oct 08NFL week 5 picks
Last week was terrible. Lots of injuries, the Ravens lost in OT, and I lost about $30. But Lane Kiffin got fired in truly ridiculous fashion, and there’s hope for T.O.-drama yet. You know the drill–picks in bold, half-assed analysis immediately below.
Last week: 7-6
Overall: 39-21
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have some work to do with LT Jared Gaither. He got turned around several times and was ultimately replaced by Adam Terry, which pretty much says it all. I’ve said that I thought Joe Flacco reminded me of Ben Roethlisberger (big, solid, just enough speed to run–like David Garrard too, now that I think about it), and then I saw his “scramble” with 298lb Aaron Smith in pursuit–twelve seconds of epic lumbering. Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch have to be ecstatic about what this game will do for their stats.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Larry Johnson, you might not gain another 198 yards in the next three games combined. Sorry, dude.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
The case for the Texans:
- They came pretty damn close to topping the Jaguars.
- They’re at home, and they usually play the Colts hard.
- Steve Slaton’s a boom-or-bust back, and the Colts don’t stop the run well.
- Andre Johnson’s had a bad case of stone hands, but that can’t last forever (I hope).
- Yeah, Mario Williams sells out on the pass rush, but the Colts line won’t be able to stop him.
- They’re only 3-pt. dogs at home, and Vegas always overvalues the Colts.
The case for the Colts:
- Peyton Manning.
- Jeff Saturday.
- Anthony Gonzalez.
- Joseph Addai (Hasn’t produced much…yet).
- Vegas always overvalues the Colts because they win a lot.
I think the Texans have a decent chance at winning this game. And yeah, this pick is gonna make me feel a little panicky by kickoff, but you only live once.
San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins
The Chargers took a long time to put the Raiders away, but the Raiders are were better than I expected. The Dolphins took advantage of the Pats ancient linebackers, but even a Norv Turner team won’t fall for the same trick twice.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
The clouds are parting, D-town fans. The sun’s gonna come out…but not this week. Or this season.
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Falcons fans, take note of the way you feel at 12:59PM Sunday. It’s going to be the high point of your team’s season. Meanwhile, the Packers are hoping that Aaron Rodgers a) plays, and b) isn’t Derek Anderson redux.
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants
Kiwanuka’s feeling healthier, the Seahawks wideouts are not, and the Giants have won without Plax before. But don’t worry, the Hawks will be there to lose the wild-card game in January.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Skins offense has been a huge surprise, but Washington hasn’t done a great job stopping the run or covering tight ends and running backs. Brian Westbrook should be back, and maybe DeSean Jackson won’t do something unbelievably asinine this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos
Jay Cutler is forcing passes, but I agree with … PFT? … when they say that Brian Griese keeps both teams in any given game. Also, Tampa Bay’s defense apparently discovered the fountain of youth down there somewhere.
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
I still don’t think the Bills are quite as good as their record indicates–you can’t like the fact that Marshawn Lynch has yet to crack 90yds in a game, or that they took so long to put the Rams (Trent Green edition) away. But Edge James is no Steven Jackson, and the Cards’ best defender, Adrian Wilson, is still out.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
Attention Marvin Lewis: Because you yanked Carson Palmer for Whatever-his-name-is at the last second, I plan to bet against your team* for the next twelve weeks straight. I’d bet against you if you were playing South Beloit Junior High.
*Until you get fired after week 8, at which point it will be someone else’s team.
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
No great love for the Pats, but the porous SF offensive line was bad enough that the Saints (the Saints!) defense notched six sacks.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Steelers evidently think that having Ben get hit by two defenders as he flips an eight-yd completion is a positive play. Also, their two top halfbacks, their backup fullback that they used as a halfback and their starting right guard got hurt. Jacksonville’s a tough team to face on a short week.
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
New Orleans can’t stop the run, and Minnesota has Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. But Minnesota can’t defend the pass, and Jared Allen hasn’t been the all-world rusher the Vikings thought they were getting. Also, partially-competent quarterback Gus Frerotte has stitches in his hand. And Drew Brees is averaging 335 yds/game.
March 28th, 2009 at 11:58 am
Generally I do not post on blogs, but I would like to say that this post really forced me to do so! really nice post.