06
Nov 08Week 10 NFL picks.
I wonder if there’s ever been a comparison of coaches’ win percentages and their BMI. It has to tail off once you approach obesity—I mean, who was the last really great fat NFL coach? (For the record, I don’t think Andy Reid’s a very good coach. I’m pretty sure my buddy/Philly fan Andrew would back me up on that, too)
Last week: 11-3
Overall: 78-52
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns
I have visions of Jamal Lewis steamrollering the undersized Broncos defense, but I also have visions of Brady Quinn, bangs in his eyes, throwing the ball directly to Mike Shanahan. Then again, I don’t really trust Cutler—his numbers have steadily declined after playing some horrible defenses early. I guess the short version is that this game’s a gambler’s nightmare.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
The Saints have been terrible on the road, but all you really have to do to stop Matt Ryan is to blanket Roddy White. Good luck trying to do that with Drew Brees. John Abraham has 10 of the Falcons’ 16 sacks, but they’ve all been against bad offensive lines—Oakland, Detroit and KC account for 8 of them. Believe it or not, the Saints defensive line hasn’t been too bad against the run, either.
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
I swear I said that Chicago is about 80% as good as Tennessee a few weeks back, but now I can’t seem to find the quote. Anyway, that was without Sexy Rexy under center. Bye-bye, Bears playoff hopes!
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions
I accidentally typed “Hacksonville” at first, and it’s not really that much of a stretch. But whatever problems David Garrard is having (and he’s definitely got some) pale compared to Daunte Culpepper’s first start in about thirteen years.
Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins
The Fins are a lot better than they were last year. Joey Porter is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate, not just in his own mind. The Wildcat will strike again this week, but one thing—it’s usually a variation on the team name (e.g., Arkansas calls it the “Wild Hog”). Why not “Wild porpoise” or “Wild Bottlenose”?
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
One of the first things I did, playing Madden 09’s franchise mode as the Vikings, was to draft Brian Brohm. One competent quarterback got me two Super Bowls. That and trading for Ed Reed. Anyway, the point is that Frerotte sucks and the Purple Jesus isn’t looking quite as otherworldly this year.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
I want to be wrong about this one, but I don’t see Edwards pulling it out. If he does, though, it’ll be against the Patriots’ 32nd-ranked pass defense.
St. Louis Rams at New York Jets
Kris Jenkins was a monster last week, showing stunning agility for a man who could counterweight a drawbridge. Steven Jackson and his injured quad won’t get much going against a Jenkins-led run defense.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Houston’s Achilles heel is a run defense that’s amazing in its inability to close out games and keep offenses off the field. Not good facing a team with two surprisingly good running backs (Ray Rice, LeRon McClain) and one surprisingly bad one (Willis McGahee). And Matt Schaub is hurt again.
Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders
The one good thing about the Raiders was Nnamdi Asomugha, but he’s not dumb enough to stick around, so the Raiders had to franchise him again.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Roethlisberger is probably out, which leaves the statuesque Leftwich under center. Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore, two speed backs, won’t do too well against a fast Colts defense, especially on Heinz Field’s chewed-up field. Just another reminder: I haven’t picked the Colts right once this season.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
Ah, Herm. Remember when the Chiefs gave up draft picks for the privilege of your wondrous leadership?
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants have 30 sacks on the season, while their opponents have 10. The Eagles defense has 27, while the Eagles’ opponents have 13. Both teams should notch a few, but the real difference is on offense, where the Giants have a significant advantage on the ground.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Kurt Warner looks more like an old soldier than an athlete these days, but he’s got a nice little renaissance going in Arizona. And thanks to the Intertubes, I don’t have to watch a second of this game to see all of Mike Singletary’s antics.