Week 12 NFL picks.
You know the drill.
Last week: 11-4
Overall: 101-58
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers offense got lost in the snow last week, but their defense was outstanding. The Bengals defense is improving, but it’s not there yet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
A few weeks back, I thought this was one of Detroit’s better chances to avoid 0-16. I don’t think so anymore. Jeff Garcia and the Bucs offense is holding together with Scotch tape and string, but Earnest Graham’s absence shouldn’t be too much of a problem against the Lions’ stunningly bad defense.
NY Jets @ Tennessee Titans
Kerry Collins, you have my attention. It’ll be interesting to watch man-mountain Kris Jenkins against the interior of the Titans’ solid offensive line, and Haynesworth do his damage against the Jets. No “Fuck yeah!” for Favre after this week.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Put last week’s loss on Dickie J’s strategy of running Marshawn Lynch into a wall for three straight plays, instead of even attempting a short pass. A 47yd field goal in blustery Buffalo is generally a bad call.
Chicago Bears @ St. Louis Rams
Orlando Pace and Steven Jackson might be out for a long time. A good tune-up week for whoever starts at QB for Chicago.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Belichick won’t get fooled again by the Wildcat. More importantly, neither will defensive rookie of the year Keith Rivers.
Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars
I can’t find it right now, but somewhere there’s a photo of Brad Childress halfway through tossing a challenge flag onto the field, bug-eyed and looking like an ultra-goober. It’s not really relevant to his coaching ability, but he sure looks like a moron. Plus, David Garrard > Gus Frerotte.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens weren’t as bad as the 30-10 score last week. I just want people to know that. Anyway, the Eagles passing game matches up well against a Ravens secondary missing a lot of players to injury, but McNabb has a tendency to run hot and cold, and he’ll throw his share of turkeys. Expect the Ravens to target Brian Dawkins a lot–he’s lost a step or five.
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns
Andre Johnson deserves better than this. Sage Rosenfels should be suspect #1, 2 and 3 in any investigation of thrown games, but if Denver can hold Jamal Lewis to 60 yards on 19 carries (and one of those was for 29), anyone can. Hey, while we’re on the subject, is everyone ready to admit that Reggie Bush isn’t anywhere near as good as Mario Williams, and that Charlie Casserley actually did a decent job building this team?
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
Marion Barber for the win. Again.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
With @ Denver, @ San Diego, New England, Houston and @ Tampa coming up for the Black and Silver, that under-6 total wins bet starts to look pretty good.
Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks
Hasselbeck’s return wasn’t a return to form, with 3 interceptions against the Cardinals. Seattle’s pass defense has been horrendous, especially against running backs. Portis should have a monster game.
NY Giants @ Arizona Cardinals
Brandon Jacobs’ knee bruise shouldn’t be too much of of an issue, especially since Arizona ranks 30th in the league against #1 wide receivers.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
I don’t trust Delhomme (weren’t we saying the same things about him four years ago?), but the DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart tandem should steamroll the undersized Falcons defense. Julius Peppers has been feasting on bad right tackles this year, and Tyson Clabo falls squarely in that category.
Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers
San Diego’s defensive stand against the Steelers last week: sham? steroids? Who knows. Before the season started, we thought this could be a battle for home-field advantage. Now it’s the Chargers’ last stand.
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints
Reggie Bush is second in Football Outsiders’ receiving DYAR standings, behind…Matt Forte? I guess this should go up in the Chicago section too. Also, New Orleans is 5-1 at home (the one loss came on a missed field goal), 1-4 away. Aaron Rodgers will light it up, though, thanks to the Saints terrible defense.