30
Nov 11
A pair of fascinating articles on cocaine economics. First up: did cocaine’s declining price cause the drop in violent crime?
Once the margin of profit for dealing small amounts of crack cocaine disappeared, being part of the drug trade was no longer worth the persistent threat of violence or the stiff criminal penalties. A 70 percent drop in cocaine prices like the one that occurred in the mid 1990s combined with competition from decentralized sources for methamphetamines and prescription narcotics would completely eliminate the minimum wage drug dealer as a viable profession.
The same goes for turf wars, which Venkatesh saw as the source of the majority of inner-city violence. He saw the life of a drug dealer as relatively violence-free up until territory conflicts with other gangs ensued. Without the high value of cocaine as a commodity, the incentive for protracted gang wars would dwindle as well as eliminate the economy for the illegal weapons, drive-by shootings, and mercenary “warriors” needed to help defend prime dealing locations. Without profit to fight over, Vankatesh thought that “gang violence would likely return to pre-crack levels.”
On the Mexican side, a forensic economist believes the cartels are behaving rationally:
According to Dell, the cartels have behaved like textbook economic actors, shifting their trafficking routes in predictable ways to circumvent towns where the government has cracked down and raiding towns where competing cartels have been weakened by government efforts.
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What happens when a law-and-order mayor gets elected? All hell breaks loose: Dell estimates that the drug-related homicide rate almost doubles relative to “control” towns where the PAN wasn’t elected. And it’s not the result of traffickers warring with police, but rather traffickers fighting with each other. Dell conjectures—based on anecdotal evidence about the drug war—that police efforts tend to weaken a cartel’s grip on a town just enough that competing traffickers see an opening to come in and fight for control of the town. Indeed, when a rival cartel controls a neighboring town, the effect of a PAN win on the drug-related homicide rate is several times higher.
08
Nov 11
Now that I’m married, it’s time to get back into it:
- Android fragmentation visualized. The lesson here: buy a nice phone with a clean Android install, like, say, a Nexus One (Except you can’t buy these new anymore. Pick up a Nexus S or wait for the Galaxy Nexus, I guess–or just buy an iPhone).
- Climate skeptic accidentally buttresses climate change data.
- I’m with Doug Farrar–Penn State absolutely deserves the NCAA’s “death penalty” for covering up Jerry Sandusky’s abuse. I’d also just like to point out that, despite plenty of evidence of the Catholic Church protected/still protects sexual predators, I haven’t seen any bishops in handcuffs. Also, his autobiography was named Touched. So…
- I saw Louis CK on Sunday. As usual, he was funny, insightful, and earnest (Won’t spoil anything–the set is going to be his next special). Here’s Alyssa’s writeup.